“None of us want Trump to win, which is exactly why we’re doing this,” Detroit city council Democrat says.
  • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
    0·
    4 months ago

    A couple figures to aid the discussion. Hot off the presses from todays polling:

    Biden versus Trump (up to date as of today):

    Biden versus Trump and Clinton versus Trump (X axis is days out from the election):

    For edification, Clinton versus Trump 2016 (keep in mind that Trump and Clintons polling numbers in the early parts of this figure represent being in contested primaries):

    Another version comparing 2016 to 2024 (but more focused on the period of time before the election):

    • Telorand@reddthat.com
      0·
      4 months ago

      I don’t find these kinds of comparisons and “latest data points” to be particularly helpful in these kinds of discussions. Voter sentiment is fickle, and how you quantify the “Uncommitted” movement will affect how the data is presented.

      We don’t know how the Uncommitted will actually vote in November, though we can be certain at least some will not vote for Biden if nothing changes. It’s a political game of chicken, and it’s Biden’s move.

      • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
        0·
        4 months ago

        We don’t know how the Uncommitted will actually vote in November, though we can be certain at least some will not vote for Biden if nothing changes. It’s a political game of chicken, and it’s Biden’s move.

        Clinton lost Michigan by 0.2% and it cost her the election. Her campaign opted to not focus on the rust belt and delivered us Trump in the first place.

        Biden is losing this election, and I think if a Trump presidency concerns you, its especially worth considering.

        Biden can’t afford to lose any voters in Michigan. His policies are working against his ability to gather support in the 2024 election. We can’t wait until after November to have this conversation. It needs to happen now.

        • MdRuckus @lemmy.world
          0·
          4 months ago

          Again, if Trump can’t win more than 65% of his own base as a former president, I’m not that worried. The dude has never won the popular it’s and sure as hell won’t this time. He’s definitely lost support. I will place money that Biden will win an even larger popular and electoral vote victory this time.

          • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
            0·
            4 months ago

            I would love to have your confidence bro. I really would. I just look at the polling, I look at the messaging, I look at the fervency of the bases, and I don’t have it.

            Trumps voters are excited as all hell to vote for him. He’s got evangelicals perhaps literally worshiping him.

            I just dont see what you are seeing…

              • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
                0·
                4 months ago

                Saved. Love to gamble.

                I’ll give you 1:1 on Biden winning. $20 enough to make it fun?

                Also, I’d like to ask for 20:1 on Biden not being the candidate. If you want those odds, I’d also like to bet $20. (you’d be the house, so if I win, thats a $400 payout on you).

                We can save this post and then venmo or paypal, whatever is preferred.

                Also good with just the first bets or will hear counter odds on Biden not being the candidate.