This is the first poll taken after the conviction, and has us at 41% Biden/39% Trump

Actual voting preferences differ only slightly from one the same pollster took in early May, which had us at 35% Biden/36% Trump.

Having a solid sense of how the conviction will impact things will likely take a week or so as news percolates and people talk.

I’ll also note that these to polls are polls of adults, which tend to favor Trump by a little bit more than polls of registered voters or of likely voters.

Archived copies of the article: archive.today ghostarchive.org

    • Wrench@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      11
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      29 days ago

      Polls are only good for confirmation bias.

      It’s trivial to game a poll via phrasing and user selection.

      Here on lemmy, polls are only used as evidence if it confirms the poster’s biases. Otherwise, they’re waved off as unreliable.

    • silence7@slrpnk.netOP
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      2
      ·
      28 days ago

      They’re enough to tell us that we’re seeing a little bit of movement in response to Trump’s guilty verdict, and that the election is close enough that it could easily go either way

      • anticolonialist@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        arrow-down
        2
        ·
        28 days ago

        So we will hold that same standard in a few days when fresh polling comes out showing Trump still beating Biden?

    • kromem@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      28 days ago

      Not really, and there’s often slight changes around news cycles that erase after a few weeks. Too early to say if this will actually stick.