A really good explanation about how an increase in GST collected on fuel is likely to be offset by a decrease in spending elsewhere.
Also, we’re likely to see a change in behaviour from consumers, likely a decrease in non essential driving. I know I’m considering the driving I do a lot more carefully.
Some discretionary travel will be limited.
Carpooling will likely increase.
Spending cuts in other areas may offset the increase in fuel spending.
It really is difficult to say in advance, this kind of analysis is Brest done in hindsight with actual data. The complex interactions are probably impossible to model accurately. Best you can do is broad trends, and you are likely going to be off by a significant margin.
Good summary. It is hard to believe that Labour and National are the two most popular parties.
Agreed, it is foolhardy to jump in like this.
It snacks of truing to win a “gotcha”, but the risk of looking like an idiot is high.
But then again, this is directly from the trump playbook, score the point now, by the time the dust settles no one will remember the details, just the impression that labour ‘won’ something a while back.
So maybe it’s us that are the ones that are ‘wrong’ for questioning the strategy.
Accurate. We do live in a headline-driven society. Fuck TikTok and everything that is trying to emulate it now.
DISCLAIMER: The odds on me looking like an idiot are pretty high: https://polymarket.com/event/bacon-wrapped-enigma-looks-like-an-idiot-2026
That disclaimer was just a joke but it is interesting to use polymarket as an odds indicator: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by
Currently the odds of a cease-fire:
What happens if nobody calls a ceasefire, but both sides stop bombing each other?
I’ve been pretty disappointed with the way Hipkins has handled this event to be honest.
He’s been very critical of the government, while at the same time refusing to say what Labour would do differently. And my reaction to people like that is typically to tell them to fuck right off.