Russia exports its gas via pipelines. Most of them go to Europe. At least for the most part. Russias LNG exports are pretty small and sanctions prevent them from exporting more. The Russians also cut most pipeline gas sales to the EU. That has halved Russias gas exports abroad. They only really sell to China and Turkey, as well as the bit of LNG they have and the bit of EU sales they did not cut. All of that leads to Gazprom the only company exporting Russian gas loosing money.
Oil is more difficult as it is easier to transport, but we recently saw a massive decline in shipments to India. India is Russias biggest oil client, so a decline is horrible for Russia. Furthermore Russia is stopping exports of refined products due to refineries in Russia being hit.
Generally speaking the EU is doing just fine in terms of energy security. Higher gas prices increase the speed to transition away from it and that removes Russias biggest potential market. China does not want a new gas pipeline to Russia and is therefore unable to replace Europe as a cutomer. Especially with China trying to move into a post carbon economy themself. As for oil the better way is for the US to not consume as much.
It doesn’t really matter who Russia sells their hydrocarbons to, that’s all subject to change over time. They even already have new pipelines in the works. What matters is the price they can get for selling it to whoever wants to buy some. This price is something we can influence. We can’t really halt their exports, but we can reduce their profit margins.
We are two years in the war and Russia has not started construction on a new gas pipeline. None are currently in a stage, where they even prepare construction. Even if they wanted to do it, a new pipeline costs billions and takes years to be built. Russia is unable to do that right now. LNG is not an option, due to lacking the technology. The truth is everybody knows that Russia needs to sell gas and that means lower prices. Again Gazprom is loosing money and they will not have the ability to sell more gas for years.
Russia exports its gas via pipelines. Most of them go to Europe. At least for the most part. Russias LNG exports are pretty small and sanctions prevent them from exporting more. The Russians also cut most pipeline gas sales to the EU. That has halved Russias gas exports abroad. They only really sell to China and Turkey, as well as the bit of LNG they have and the bit of EU sales they did not cut. All of that leads to Gazprom the only company exporting Russian gas loosing money.
Oil is more difficult as it is easier to transport, but we recently saw a massive decline in shipments to India. India is Russias biggest oil client, so a decline is horrible for Russia. Furthermore Russia is stopping exports of refined products due to refineries in Russia being hit.
Generally speaking the EU is doing just fine in terms of energy security. Higher gas prices increase the speed to transition away from it and that removes Russias biggest potential market. China does not want a new gas pipeline to Russia and is therefore unable to replace Europe as a cutomer. Especially with China trying to move into a post carbon economy themself. As for oil the better way is for the US to not consume as much.
It doesn’t really matter who Russia sells their hydrocarbons to, that’s all subject to change over time. They even already have new pipelines in the works. What matters is the price they can get for selling it to whoever wants to buy some. This price is something we can influence. We can’t really halt their exports, but we can reduce their profit margins.
We are two years in the war and Russia has not started construction on a new gas pipeline. None are currently in a stage, where they even prepare construction. Even if they wanted to do it, a new pipeline costs billions and takes years to be built. Russia is unable to do that right now. LNG is not an option, due to lacking the technology. The truth is everybody knows that Russia needs to sell gas and that means lower prices. Again Gazprom is loosing money and they will not have the ability to sell more gas for years.
Correct, just planning so far.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-sign-power-siberia-2-gas-pipeline-contract-in-near-future-says-2024-05-17/
I don’t expect Russia will have to provide everything for the construction themselves.