You’re doing a lot of mental gymnastics to make this make sense from an accidental perspective. You’ve made up your mind that it was a mistaken intruder.
Me, personally? I have no clue whether he did or didn’t. And considering only he can know that for sure, I think that’s the only reasonable conclusion you can draw.
I certainly have no interest in debating all of these hypothetical motives he could have had.
Not voting is so brave. It must be really hard.