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Cake day: July 17th, 2023

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  • I doubt anything will happen even then.

    Well, nothing useful at least – I’m sure that with the current meteoric rise of the extreme right many things will happen, but they’ll be more of the “death camp” variety than the “fixing the climate” variety

    edit: I think high-emission models (ie models that assume we’re going to do jack fucking shit and emissions will keep rising, which frankly seems probable) have predicted average temperature rises of 4 – 5°C. I’m trying to dig up some sources, hang on

    Revenge of the Edit:
    the following refer to the global mean screen temperature[1] at the end of the century for the most pessimistic SSPs[2]

    • CanESM5’s prediction is around 20 – 21°C, giving an anomaly of ~5 – 6°C
    • CNRM-CM6-1 gives global mean screen temps of around 18 – 19°C, so an anomaly of ~3 – 4°C
    • I think UKESM1-0-LL had an anomaly of around 3.5 – 5°C but I’m too tired to read that paper and can’t seem to find the relevant figures
    • ditto for GFDL-CM4

    The Edit Strikes Back:

    The IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report (AR6) includes data from older and usually less sensitive versions (ie. very often more optimistic…) of the models above plus a ton of others, and its Physical Science Basis report’s policymaker summary had this handy table:

    Note that climate models are just that, models. We know they still have a lot of biases and they’re not perfect, but they do already predict historical climate really well, and it should be telling that the better the models get, the worse the predictions tend to be



    1. temperature measured at a standardized height using a “Stevenson screen”. Current global mean screen temperature is around 15°C ↩︎

    2. “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways”, standardized modeling scenarios ↩︎


  • The unfortunate thing is that it’s not just American fascism that’s on the rise. Here in good 'ol Europe we have multiple countries being led by more or less fascist governments - eg. in Italy’s case a literal neofascist party that is a descendant of Mussolini’s original fascist party – and the far right got an unprecedented amount of votes in the EU Parliament elections earlier this year. Then there’s India’s Modi, or Israel’s Netanyahu – both unabashedly fascist.

    It seems that after Trump, conservatives everywhere realized that they can actually do anything they want and not only will nobody stop them, but something close to a majority of people will actually outright support them the more fascist they get. Even most “fiscally conservative” parties seem to have dropped their masks and started leaning heavily on far right rhetoric, eg. like what’s been going on here in Finland now that we have a fully right wing government – the “fiscal conservatives” are now completely indistinguishable from the extremist right wing party, right down to being anti-LGBT+ and racist. They started off with limiting peoples’ right to strike, and now they’re working on limiting the right of assembly using the Extinction Rebellion (who they claim are as bad as neo-Nazis) as an excuse. Personally I had a “moderate” conservative acquantance tell me that the world would be a better place if gender minorities like me wouldn’t exist, apparently dreaming of some sort of Endlösung.

    I don’t think it’s just the hardcore right that is a threat to stable and civilized societies; every single conservative seems to just be waiting for the moment they can stop the pretense and actually say and do what they really want to do, which seems to be full-on fascism.













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    13 days ago

    Ohh based on the headline I thought they were like giving cops backdoor access to users’ devices or something, but they’re just selling devices to cops. So, while yeah this is pretty ironic, nothing about what Apple promises regarding device privacy really seems to have been broken here – cops are using “iPhones for surveillance” just like they’d use any smartphones in their line of work