I need to see how it plays out over the next few weeks. I was too young to participate, but the Iraq War protests were one of my first radicalising experiences because everyone around me turned into a flag-fucking Khorne cultist. Yellow ribbons were ubiquitous on every house and hog, while the worst opposition allowed in public discourse was “I am waiting to see the WMDs before supporting the invasion but I do support our troops”. Maybe on par with 9/11 and the initial bombing of Afghanistan, most liberals I saw were pro-Bush until the first phase of the invasion was over.

Right now the media is falling in line and seems very reminiscent of 2003, along with the . I already know there won’t be any consequences for the architects, pirates, or kidnappers participating in the Special Military Operation. I’m expecting most officials to support it until something goes wrong because the kidnapping was a success in a decades-long string of failures.

The main psychosocial thing that’s up in the air for me is public opinion and how enthusiastic normal people will be about the mission and losses. I don’t think that will parallel Iraq as strongly or as long. The main group calling for it outside of oil companies is the gusanos, and they’re legally on par with refugees from Somalia and Afghanistan now as far as ICE is concerned. It remains to be seen whether the liberal hatred of non-white people will outweigh their hatred of Trump.