Beijing views the Spanish city’s migration crisis through the lens of geopolitics and hybrid warfare, while consolidating Morocco as one of its main strategic partners in Africa.

What if the massive influx of migrants to Ceuta were part of an intelligence operation orchestrated by Morocco and Israel to destabilize Spain? This is the theory gaining traction in some Chinese academic and intelligence circles. Beijing officials conveyed this view in conversations with this newspaper about how the migration crisis in the Spanish autonomous city has been perceived in the world’s second-largest economy.

This week, Egyptian political scientist Nadia Helmy, a specialist in Chinese politics and Sino-Israeli relations, openly endorsed this theory in an article published by Modern Diplomacy , an international journal specializing in geopolitical analysis. The author argues that some reports prepared in Beijing interpret the events in Ceuta as a hybrid warfare operation intended to increase pressure on the government of Pedro Sánchez . According to this interpretation, the maneuver involved the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, which is interested in promoting a destabilization campaign against Spain.

Helmy contrasts this interpretation with the coverage by the main Chinese state media, such as CGTN or Xinhua, which focused mainly on the deployment of the Spanish Army and the implications of the crisis for the external borders of the European Union.

“Chinese intelligence analysis centers have examined the escalation of diplomatic and political tensions between Spain and Israel. From that perspective, the deterioration of bilateral relations could have motivated Mossad to become involved in the migration crisis between Morocco and Spain, exacerbating the situation and infiltrating agents to foment discontent and chaos among the Moroccan population,” Helmy explains.

In private conversations, some diplomats and analysts close to political circles in Beijing are also wondering if the assault on Ceuta has any relation to the progressive deterioration of relations between Madrid and Israel, marked by the Spanish government’s criticism of the massacre in Gaza and the recognition of the Palestinian state.

“Since the normalization of relations in 2020, Morocco and Israel have become allies and have strengthened their defense and intelligence cooperation,” a diplomat commented.

The theory has also resonated outside of China. Colombian President Gustavo Petro directly pointed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as ultimately responsible for the migration crisis in Ceuta. He asserted that the Israeli leader “pays the poor to risk their lives to reach Spain” and that Morocco “has surrendered to the designs of a fugitive genocidal maniac,” linking the migrant influx to the close relationship between Rabat and Tel Aviv. Petro also accused the Israeli prime minister of promoting destabilization campaigns against governments that question his policies in the Middle East.

In China , a country where border control is a cornerstone of national security, images of thousands of people crossing into Spanish territory provoked a mixture of astonishment and disbelief among many Chinese social media users. “How is it possible for them to cross the border so easily?” was one of the most frequently asked questions.

The official press also focused on the political consequences for Europe. “The Ceuta crisis has exposed the shortcomings of the EU’s post-2015 migration reforms and highlights the bloc’s difficulties in building a unified response,” said Cui Hongjian, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, in an interview with the Global Times , which published an extensive analysis of the tensions that have arisen within the European Union following the events at the Spanish border.

Beyond the migration dimension, Chinese officials and diplomats explain that in Beijing the crisis is viewed primarily from a geostrategic perspective. Ceuta appears as another piece in the complex chessboard of the Western Mediterranean, a region where essential maritime routes, port infrastructure, energy supplies, and a growing Chinese economic presence converge.

The close relationship between the governments of Pedro Sánchez and Xi Jinping has been exemplified by the Spanish president’s four visits to Beijing, more than any other European leader, solidifying Spain’s position as one of the most receptive interlocutors with China within the European Union. However, for the communist regime, Morocco has become one of its most strategically important partners in Africa.

Morocco, a trading partner for China

In just five years, Rabat and Beijing have significantly strengthened their economic relations through major infrastructure projects and trade agreements that position the Alawite kingdom as one of China’s main gateways to both the African and European markets.

The investment is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector. Dozens of Chinese companies have announced multi-million dollar investments to build factories for electric vehicle components, batteries, and strategic materials in Morocco. This choice is due to several factors: political stability, free trade agreements with the European Union and the United States , abundant phosphate reserves—key to battery manufacturing—and a prime location just 14 kilometers from Europe.

Beijing believes that Morocco can play a role similar to that which Vietnam has assumed in Asia: an industrial platform from which to supply Western markets, circumventing some of the growing trade barriers that affect exports coming directly from China.

This is further complemented by increasingly intensive cooperation in infrastructure. Chinese state-owned enterprises are involved in railway, energy, and port projects , while the port of Tangier Med—the largest in the Mediterranean and one of the world’s leading ports in terms of container traffic—has established itself as a logistics hub of enormous value for Chinese supply chains. From there, goods can be rapidly distributed to Europe and West Africa, reinforcing Morocco’s role as a continental logistics platform.

That is why, every time a crisis erupts in Ceuta or anywhere in northern Morocco, Beijing calculates the possible impact on one of its economic partners whose strategic importance continues to grow.