The trump regime was designed to TANK the US economy so that stocks, businesses, and industries can be bought by billionaires at rock bottom prices.
All is going according to plan.
A few months before trump got to sit on the throne I read Warren Buffet was slowly rebalancing his stocks into cash. Is this the reason? Did he/advisors possibly know what was coming up?
Wait wait wait. So not fentanyl then?
But the eggs!
This is a good thing. American consumers are going to feel their pain soon and one of two things will happen:
- Trump will walk back his stupid tariffs again: good for Canada short term
- Trump won’t walk back his stupid tariffs this time and will tank in ratings: good for the world at large long term
Your 2nd point doesn’t really matter if Trump follows through with “elect me and you’ll never have to vote again”.
If those factories close down, Canadas demand doesn’t dissapear, they will simply bring in Toyota or Honda to fill the factories and make domestic vehicles and cut out the US. Sure its some short term pain for Canada, but not the permanent pain the US is going to feel.
Demand for US goods worldwide is going to dry up and things are going to get really bad in America. It’s just too bad Canada is so close to such an unstable neighbor, when the government falls it will be chaos.
I guess it’s just another move to weaken all US automakers so Musk and Tesla can sneak in and buy them all up, or just take over their market share.
Probably will be made up for by fewer US made autos selling everywhere else. Also, of course this is pretty dumb since US manufacturers make cars elsewhere and Japanese manufacturers make cars in the US. As usual, too, someone who wasn’t a destructive imbecile would realize it takes years to build manufacturing facilities and ramp the tariffs up over time. Plus, the incentive isn’t really there since who knows if they tariffs will even be there by the time they could build US facilities. And oh, yes, I’m sure Elron had nothing to do with this.
Gee I wonder why the stock market just plunged again
Did it? I really can’t wrap my head around trying to reconcile what the people who know about this stuff say and what the numbers on page seem to say. I’m just not smart enough. I know I’m not the brightest bulb in the box, but I’ve been trying to figure out the real impact of all this on the market and it honestly seems to be really minimal. Yes, it’s trending down and recession seems likely and a couple days had really big drops this month - but it’s nowhere near even its average, never mind its lows from the past 2 or 3 year periods. Just 3 years ago the market was at like 28,000 points. It doubled in 3 years and now that its shrinking a bit, that is a crisis? What do I not get?
This isn’t so much the market “plummeting” as it looks like to me a massive bubble bursting that was based on nothing to begin with.
But then, I’m the guy who thinks “The Big Short” was a smart movie. I’ll freely admit I’m a fucking moron who knows nothing about finance.
So I may have misspoke, and, I am also not smart enough to understand all of this, but I do understand one thing. Investments that track the stock market are supposed to grow. Usually about 7% a year. I invested in index funds back in september, at one point I saw it up by ~5% but now my balance is back down to ~2% from initial investment. At this point I would expect to reasonably be between those numbers. Given the instability we keep seeing, I’m not expecting nearly the ~7% growth per year that is normally a rule of thumb :'(
Ah ha - I see, we’re talked over each other a bit but I think I get it now. You have to adjust for the assumed 7% in growth that would be considered “standard”. We’re not really at -2%, because we should be aiming for +7% at minimum. Which means the short fall is more than 4 times what it appears to be to my layman ass. I think I get it.
Right yeah basically. From September we probably ought to be at a 3% - 4% gain but I’m personally down to a 2% gain. At one point it was down to like 1%. It’s super easy for me to check because I invested a multiple of 10 and haven’t touched it since.
What’s really concerning is the speed of loss. It’s hot garbage.
You aren’t right about this. Surely you can read a line graph… I have index funds that closely track the market as a whole and they are way down compared to even before the election.
Right, and I can see that. But if you back out that line graph over a longer period of time, this dip would be miniscule compared to the overall upward trajectory. If the Y Axis tracking the market starts at 0 (which it wouldn’t I get that, but go with me here) and the X axis tracks time and we set it to say, a 3 year period - then the result is that the line has exploded upwards. The tiny tip at the end which represents the last 6 months barely registers. The average closing price in 2023 was 34,121. The close today was 42,454. So even if the market has dropped significantly in the last few months - it’s 25% higher than it was 2 years ago.
Again, I trust that people know what they’re talking about. I am certain I do NOT know what I’m talking about. I am not saying I don’t believe them, or that I’m right - I just want someone to explain the factor I’m missing. I have theories, but no way to confirm them because I lack the base knowledge to even phrase the question right.
Is the stock market supposed to have a “default growth” element that we have to account for? Like, is the fact that the market twice as high as it was 3 years ago an illusion because constant growth is just a necessary element of the market functioning at all? Does that default growth make longer timelines less useful as comparative tools?
Or is it that more that the market was projected to grow and then shrunk instead, so the relevant comparison isn’t to history, but to projections, which is why even a small dip seems more catastrophic? Because it was supposed to continue skyrocketing.
Or am I asking the impossible? Does gaining context for the larger momentum of the stock market take a degree in finance and by asking for someone for a simple explanation I’m just further showing my ignorance?
The funny part about this is that I feel even more validated when I check a live updates graph of the s and p 500.
See for yourself: https://www.macrotrends.net/2488/sp500-10-year-daily-chart
The way I interpret that graph of the last 5 years is that at only a couple of points in time did any drops as steep or as large occur except during covid times (exacerbated hugely by Trump) and once in 2023 which I’m not sure what happened but it was a slower fall and the recovery was very strong.
Then funny enough I stumbled on this image (I had saved from a couple weeks ago) when I took this screenshot to show you:
I don’t find it fair to say it only is significant because it’s not visible on a 90 year graph. Times change a lot over decades. Even if you only look at 20 years back, this is a blip you can see and it’s only a couple months in.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
If you look at this data and don’t see it, I don’t know what to tell you.
Time to adopt the latest regulation standards and stop holding back just so Americans can cross this border
Honestly, EU regulations for vehicles are far safer for all involved. Adopting them in whole, even if it’ll take time to implement them, would help greatly as well as opening new markets. Not to mention it’ll block American cars from our market without having to rely on tariffs in the future.
This is exactly the perfect time to implement such regulations, and I hope the government will introduce laws about it once the election is over.
Absolutely, it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity to latch off from NHTSA and save thousands of lives by just copying Europes homework on a few small updates.
Not holding my breath, though. I’m guessing it’s more likely the auto industry will hold on to the hopes of restoring the trade with the US.
Another part for really hoping that the government won’t let this chance go, since the US automakers are already isolated only selling domestically built vehicles in the US, further isolating them by making them impossible to import into Canada would help crush their industries while Canada’s becomes more internationally competitive by adopting EU regulations.
Hell, since EU regulations are tighter than US regulations, we’ll still meet US regulations for the most part, so once the changeover is done, we can still sell over there while they can’t sell over here after the tariff situation is over. A flat-out win-win for Canada and lose-lose for the US.
Canada seems very committed to other allies. Sure, go ahead and try to coordinate with them. Policies, coordinated, that should be announced today:
All US military purchases are paused.
Suspension of military cooperation including expulsion of US personel.
Punishing FDI into the US, with perhaps seizing assets of any related company in Canada. Export tariffs on materials needed for auto industry
Immediate diplomacy with China, to join “delete America” program, and remove tariffs on Canada, more exports, and encourage FDI.
Threaten ROK, JPN, US with relations with DPRK.
Create Government US Export management agency for energy and Potash to ensure good prices, splitting proceeds with Provinces and exporting companies. After tariffs removed, proceeds will go to companies.
Better relations with Mexico including auto sector cooperation. Chinese ships may be needed/helpful for direct trade between our 2 nations. Mexico reorienting their industry to South American demand.
Stop being a rubber stamp for US led council of Americas evil. Better trade/relations with all of South/Central America.Carney’s plan for an all Canadian auto industry is reasonable. Carrots and sticks on industry is needed. Industry fighting back against US is critical. Canada’s greater anger level is a big edge, and I/we won’t mind significant resources devoted to ensuring auto industry survival. But OTOH, it is a very expensive subsidy for jobs that will be disappearing through automation anyway. 0 imports from US ever as punishment, and opening up to much cheaper cars from elsewhere is likely a better value for Canadians/economy, and a tactic to ensure auto industry commitment.
The basics are to act as if USA is already an enemy state to its colonies. Stop pretending that they will change their mind, because they always hated their slaves.
It seems like he really thinks automotive companies can just change their entire manufacturing process and/or find land and build new factories in a couple of weeks.
